Saturday, March 31, 2012

The Battle for Hougang (HG).

Since the expulsion of Yaw Shing Leong from Workers Party (WP), Hougang ward has become a 'hot' seat.

And when PM Lee said in parliament that is no constitution that said that Hougang must have a by-election within 3 months, he knows the odds are against him!Under normal judgment, if a PAP ward is vacant...opposition parties would be too eager to contest a by-election. Why is PAP not keen to capture back HG ? Everyone knows and PAP knows too well HG is WP's stronghold for 20 years. and it is iconic to Low Thia Khiang (LTK) as Tanjong Pagar is to Lee Kuan Yew..

PM Lee is weighing the remote possibility of winning back HG...An it will be an uphill task for PAP. YSL's moral fiasco of not befitting an MP, has nothing to do with his official functioning but more on his moral character. But the fact that as a public figure, upholding one's integrity and moral values must be the norm. There is no choice but to do what have to be done. And WP did the right thing!

This episode is only a little dent on the credibility of WP as a party. As LTK acted well and with accountability and transparency to expel YSL as compared to PAP when Wong Kan Seng, slipped as minister of Home Affairs, he was led off. (I would put WKS mistake of National security far more serious than YSL's moral wrong-doing....So the comparison is there to debate!

When is Hougang going to the polls? And how many parities will be contesting? All are curious to find out...The longer PM lee holds back, the drawing is on the board, to reflect his weakness to dare fight it out with WP. Another lost, though only a by-election will be testimony of the decline of PAP...PM Lee is in sixes and sevens.

A two party contest will be the ideal scenario...If a three corner contest is in the offing...The probability would be NSP (National Solidarity Party) ..To this end , I do not see any candidate in NSP, can stand up to WP and PAP..Politics is all about might, power, brand name. NSP has yet carved out any to be ready at Hougang.

Nonetheless, the dared will fight a longer battle..NSP can try if they feel they can stand up to that might !

Having said that...apart from WP and PAP, any other party who come in, is just to dilute the votes. Yes! some will still vote for that other party....but the margin may be lest that 10 percent and it would lose the deposit....

A four party contest will be further come into the fray...No different like the last presidential election of 4 contestants. We saw how it ended in Tony Tan winning with a weak majority!!

FOOTNOTE: My prediction if a 3-corner contest....53% WP...37%% PAP and 10% for the third party .....Two party contest...WP...65%...PAP...35%

"Speak only if we can perfect on our silence."

patrick lee song juan