At this juncture of political awakening of the opposition, it is a good gesture that S'pore Democratic Party (SDP) is coming forward to prove their worth to S'poreans. They need that more than the other parties, if one knows the history of persecution by PAP and the mindless protest by Chee Soon Juan (CSJ), which propagated by PAP and MSM; put SDP in such a bad light.
SDP will be a force to watch in this by election (BE). They would have prepared themselves well and with a number of able people..notably Vincent W., It will be a party to watch though SDP will not win the contest but will not lose their deposit.
S'pore Democration Alliance (SDA), the first to announce their participation - is too emotionally charged to salvage the lost pride of last GE when DL (Desmond Lim) was trounced mercilessly.
SDA will be lucky to garner 5% vote and gone will be the deposit..Not facing reality of political nuance.
Reform Party (RP), since after the GE 2011...had sunk into the doldrums. Kenneth Jeyaretnam (KJ's) ego, many of us have known too well, will take a shot to doom. He may be able to obtain about 8%. vote on the dim legacy of joshua B. Jeyaretnam (JBJ), his famous late father.
An independent, Benjamin Pwee, will not make any headway too. But after the last noise from him, there is no indication he is still targeting the PE BE..He may be just making some fracas only!
Workers Party (WP), I do not see Low Thia Khiang not fielding Lee Lilian...It will depend on her convincing power of political rallying to win more votes, as WP is the brand now in S'pore opposition politics.
PAP is hanging on a tight rope, knowing too well the ground sentiments are not to their favour. Who they field will decide on the tough outcome too...but definitely not Desmond Choo.
SDP's CSJ is sensible to contact other opposition to sit down and map out a strategy...If the opposition can make any inroad to the bigger picture of GE 2016, this PE by-election will be it.
My take is for WP winning on a tight margin with SDP score at 25% of vote.
So, 5+8+25 = 38% taken in total by SDA, RP and SDP respectively.
The 62% will be fought between WP and PAP....and I believe WP may come out the victor at 32% of votes. The rest 30% goes to PAP.
If SDA and RP can lower their ego and withdraw from the contest (knowing too well their attempt will be futile)...It would be exciting and interesting to see a three corner fight of SDP, WP and PAP. The outcome may be in this manner...26% SDP, 40% WP and 34% PAP !
Though SDP may lose this PE participating in it..This partake will be a benchmark to gauge..how much acceptance the citizens see in SDP (when those years was branded a 'mad party' under CSJ - uttered from the ground and coffee-shops)
Let see how close I will be with my prediction !
patrick lee song juan
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